I know, after New Hampshire, we should just forget about the polls. Or should we?

To me, the Obama-Clinton polling faux pas says little about the value of political polling and a lot about the eccentricities of the Granite state .

But then that's me. If you disagree and want to just forget about the polls, I guess I'll see you later.

Still with me? Okay, then, let's look at the latest numbers.

	Michigan (Jan 15) Deleg=60	S. Carolina (Jan 19) Deleg=47	Nevada (Jan 19) Deleg=34	Florida (Jan 29) Deleg=114
Giuliani	10.3	7.0	23.7	26.5
Huckabee	19.0	24.0	15.3	21.3
McCain	19.5	22.5	7.3	14.3
Paul	4.0	5.0	5.0	3.7
Romney	20.3	16.5	23.7	16.5
Thompson	4.5	9.3	9.7	8.5

Who's leading in Michigan (Jan. 15)?

Going into Michigan next Thursday (Jan. 15), Romney, McCain, and Huckabee sit in a statistical tie. Of course, that may change after the South Carolina debates later tonight.

But then everything changes (except Gov. Romney "core beliefs"; sorry, couldn't help myself)--so what's new? Michigan, incidentally, will be divvying up 60 delegates--or 30 if you believe the GOP penalizes Mich. for moving up it's primary before Feb. 5. That means roughly 12 delegates apiece (or 6, with the penalty) for the three front-runners.

Then comes S.C. and Nevada on Jan. 19

After Michigan, it's S.C. and Nevada--both on Jan. 19. Huckabee leads in S.C. (by 1.5% over McCain), while Giuliani and Romney are now tied in Nevada at about 24% apiece.

Historically, S.C. has carried a lot of weight in the early primaries, so expect the race there to be hotly contested--especially since Thompson (and probably McCain too) sees S.C. as make-or-break time.

Giuliani's Florida strategy

And that leaves only Florida standing between the GOP candidates and Super Tuesday on Feb. 5. Florida, of course, is Rudy's "fire wall" (or life-jacket might be closer to the truth), as it's the first serious contest in the Mayor's so-called "big-state" strategy.

Giuliani continues to lead the Sunshine state with 26.5% of the vote. But Huckabee's only 5% behind and with a big win in S.C. could end up spoiling Rudy's party.